Bank of Korea’s October 22 Decision: Why a Hold at 3.00% Is Expected, and What Could Follow
Summary: The Bank of Korea’s (BOK) Monetary Policy Board meets on October 22 to set the base rate, Korea’s equivalent of the Fed funds rate. The rate stands at 3.00% a year after two 0.25 percentage-point hikes in July and August. Market expectations centre on a hold this month, with a possible further hike in November. (Aju Business Daily, Financial News)
Recent rate changes
| Date | Base rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2025 | 2.50% | Cut |
| July 16, 2026 | 2.75% | +0.25pp |
| August 27, 2026 | 3.00% | +0.25pp |
Sources: Bank of Korea base rate history, BOK monetary policy statement, Aug 27, 2026. The BOK cited stronger-than-expected growth and inflation above its target as reasons for the August hike.
Three reasons markets expect a hold
- Policy lag: after the August decision, Governor Shin Hyun-song said that because the board had “raised twice in a row,” it needed to check the effects. Analysts note it is common to pause after back-to-back hikes to watch how they feed through. (Korea Economic Daily, Financial News)
- The governor’s words: at the National Assembly’s annual audit of government agencies on October 12, Shin said the US hike in September meant Korea had “avoided a situation where we urgently had to raise again” and had “bought some time.” (Financial News, Aju Business Daily) The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate to 3.75–4.00% in September. (Yonhap)
- Cooling inflation: consumer inflation slowed from 3.1% in August to 2.9% in September, and core inflation (excluding food and energy) from 3.4% to 2.8%. Much of September’s slowdown, however, came from a fading base effect in telecom fees. (National statistics release via Korea.kr, Aju Business Daily)
Tightening stance stays in place
Speaking at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand, on October 13 (local time), Shin said the BOK would keep its tightening stance until it is confident inflation is converging on its target. He noted that lower-income households spend 32% of their income on food and energy, calling price stability a form of support for the vulnerable. (Etoday, Seoul Economic Daily, Korea Economic Daily) One outlet placed the event in Washington, D.C.; two others reported Bangkok, which we follow.
At the August meeting, board members’ rate projections for six months ahead (the BOK’s “K-dot plot”) clustered at 3.25%, one step above today’s rate: 10 of 21 dots, with 6 at 3.50% and 5 at 3.00%. (BOK monetary policy statement, Yonhap)
Brokerage scenarios
| Firm | October 22 | Path after |
|---|---|---|
| Eugene Investment & Securities | Hold (“a pause”) | Not the end of tightening |
| Hyundai Motor Securities | Hold | 3.25% in November, 3.50% in Q1 2027 |
| Shinyoung Securities | — | Next hike in November |
| NH Investment & Securities | — | Terminal rate 3.50%; talk of 3.75% is excessive |
Sources: Financial News, Aju Business Daily. These are institutional forecasts, not decisions.
FAQ
When is the next meeting after October 22?
November 26. (BOK meeting schedule, Financial News)
What is the “K-dot plot”?
Each of the seven board members places three dots for where they expect the rate to be in six months, and the results are published. It was introduced in February 2026 and is released in February, May, August and November. (Yonhap, Korea Economic Daily)
If the rate is held, will loan rates stay the same?
Not necessarily. Actual lending rates also move with market rates and banks’ spreads. Check terms with your lender.
This article summarises public reporting and Bank of Korea materials. It is not investment or lending advice. Written by the Haesul Global economy desk with AI assistance.
Sources
- Bank of Korea, base rate history (bok.or.kr), https://www.bok.or.kr/portal/singl/baseRate/list.do?dataSeCd=01&menuNo=200643 (checked Oct 14, 2026 / 2026년 10월 14일 확인)
- Bank of Korea, Aug 27, 2026, Monetary Policy Statement incl. board members’ six-month conditional rate projections, https://eiec.kdi.re.kr/policy/callDownload.do?dtime=20260827204006&filenum=1&num=285862 (2026년 10월 14일 확인)
- Bank of Korea, 2026 Monetary Policy Board meeting schedule, https://www.bok.or.kr/portal/singl/crncyPolicyDrcMtg/listYear.do?menuNo=200755&mtgSe=A (2026년 10월 14일 확인)
- National statistics agency (국가데이터처), Oct 2, 2026, September 2026 Consumer Price Trends, via Korea.kr, https://www.korea.kr/briefing/pressReleaseView.do?newsId=156784075 (2026년 10월 14일 확인)
- Yonhap News Agency, Aug 27, 2026, board members’ six-month rate outlook, https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260827069200002 (2026년 10월 14일 확인)
- Yonhap News Agency, Sep 17, 2026, September FOMC decision, https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20260917008251072 (2026년 10월 14일 확인)
- Financial News (News1), Oct 13, 2026, “‘美보다 먼저 올려 시간 벌었다’…한은, 10월 기준금리 ‘동결’ 무게”, https://www.fnnews.com/news/202610130600520544 (2026년 10월 14일 확인)
- Aju Business Daily, Oct 13, 2026, https://www.ajunews.com/view/20261013151439774 (2026년 10월 14일 확인)
- Korea Economic Daily, Aug 27, 2026, https://www.hankyung.com/article/2026082776591 (2026년 10월 14일 확인)
- Korea Economic Daily, Oct 13, 2026, https://www.hankyung.com/article/202610139794i (2026년 10월 14일 확인)
- Etoday, Oct 13, 2026, https://www.etoday.co.kr/news/view/2635377 (2026년 10월 14일 확인)
- Seoul Economic Daily, Oct 13, 2026, https://www.sedaily.com/article/20101235 (2026년 10월 14일 확인)
